Climate Change

Dear Discovery Institute,

How are you today? I am doing quite well, thank you for asking. However, I have been reading "The Politically Incorrect Guide to Science", written by Tom Bethell, and given great reviews from some of your own scientists (David Berlinski, Jonathan Wells, Phillip E. Johnson, and George Gilder). I just finished the section on Global Warming, and noticed some problems in the text.

On page 2, Bethell gives decent explanation of the Greenhouse Effect:

"Environmentalists believe that the twentieth-century warming was caused by human activity, primarily the burning of fossil fuels. Their combustion producese carbon dioxide--- one of several "greenhouse gases." Methane is another. The argument is that their release into the atmosphere wraps the Earth in an invisible shroud. It makes the escape of heat into outer space slightly miore difficult than its initial absorption by the Earth (from sunlight). This is the Greenhouse Effect. And the result is that the Earth warms." (Bethell 2005 p. 2)

However, Bethell continues to claim that humans are having no effect on global climate change. This is in stark contrast to the majority of the scientific community. While Bethell implies that humans have had NO effect on global climate change, the fact is that, by burning fossil fuels, destroying forests, etc., humans have at least served to accelerate it. This fact is accepted by most mainstream scientists. Indeed, many geologists who have worked on the subject have stated that the current warming trend is much faster than at other points in history. This is not based on the work of Al Gore, but rather on living, breathing (and CO2 producing) geologists. Factors responsible for global climate change in the past include volcanic outgassing and a large amount of CO2 and Methane producing organisms. One of the main explanations for the Snowball Earth occurance in early geologic history is the presence of large amounts of Oxygen in the atmosphere, produced by stromatolites early in Earth's history, that served to alter Earth's climate.

Where do we stand today? Humanity has destroyed much of the Earth's forested area, especially within the Amazon region of South America. We are producing large amounts of CO2, large enough to at least partially alter Earth's climate. This trend has been illustrated with the Hockey Stick graph published by Mann (more about this later). The Arctic and Antarctic ice caps are melting much faster than scientists have predicted, which is evidence of increased global warming, effected by human activity. Methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas than Carbon Dioxide, and there are huge amoutns of it trapped in the Arctic permafrost (Jacquot 2008). Heating of the ice that traps this methane will result in its release, and thus, subesquent faster warming. Whether humans are affecting it or not, the hockey stick model of global warming, in general, is accurate. We are witnessing something unique in geologic history with regards to the rate of warming on Earth.

Bethell's work claims that the Hockey Stick model is flawed, However, this mindset goes against the mainstream scientific community. Bethell ignores both computer models projecting massive increases in global temperature in the near future ( http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/02/030217120135.htm ), and scientific data arrived at independently of Mann's Hockey-Stick model that corraborate his model (http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison_png). While Bethell also claims that humans are not affecting Global Warming because "the atmosphere is not increasing in temperature". This statement is addressed in the following article ( http://archives.cnn.com/2000/NATURE/01/13/global.warming/ ). Bethell's anti-global-warming arguments, thus far, fail to hold water.

Bethell is also mistaken in arguing that the urban heat island idea somehow nullifies the claim that humans are causing global warming. He implies that the temperature increases we see are due to skewed data as a result of temperature measurements being taken in cities, and as a result of the increased heat in cities. Bethell ignores the fact that temperatures are increasing over oceans and rural areas as well. This would appear to partially nullify his arguments. The IPCC strikes the killing blow to this line of argument by Bethell: "Urban heat island effects are real but local, and have a negligible influence (less than 0.006°C per decade over land and zero over the oceans) on these values". (IPCC)


Bethell also argues that Global Warming is beneficial;

"The Warmer period [in reference to the Medieval Warm Period], accompanied by a flowering of prosperity, knowledge, and art in Europe, seems to have been wholly beneficial. Agricultural yields increased along with the temperature. Marshes and swamps---today they would be called wetlands---dried up, removing the breeding grounds of mosquitoes that spread malaria. Infant mortality fell; the population grew." (Bethell 2005, p. 7-8).

This statement may be true for a small amount of global warming. However, we are talking about a much greater amount of temperature increase today. With the melting of Antartica's ice caps, as well as much of the ice in the Arctic (which are over land), more water will be added to the ocean, which will cause an increase in sea level. The fact is, this phenomena, whether affected by humans or not, is something that we need to be prepared for. And the majority of the scientific community agrees that humans have played a part in the increase of greenhouse gasses, and, thus, in the increase of global temperature as a whole. It's no longer a question as to whether or not we've had an impact, but rather a question as to how much of an impact we've had.

Before my works cited, here's a good site for those interested in global warming to check out. I'm not an expert on the topic myself, but the author of the blog knows his stuff.

http://chriscolose.wordpress.com/

Works Cited:
Bethell, T. "The Politically Incorrect Guide to Science". Regenry, Washington DC. 2005.
Jacquot, J. "Come On, Bubble, Light my Fire". Discover magazine, February 2008. p. 14